Fall 2019 Market Update


    Video Credit: Brian Niles, Treeline Cinematic

    I’m Brian Ladd with Cascade Sotheby’s International Realty. I’m here to discuss real estate and what it looks like here in the fall of 2019 in Bend.

    I’d like to talk about three data points that are affecting real estate today here in Bend, and then I’ll try to bring it all together with some perspective at the end.

    1. Median Sales Price

    Over the last year, sales price has gone up 4.8 percent—but there are some interesting subtleties there.

    For the first time I’ve actually seen the luxury end outstrip the more normal, median-priced housing.

    Housing above a million dollars is actually up just over 5% in the last 12 months and pricing under a million is at 3.7%. This is really an inverse of what we’ve seen the last couple of years, and I really didn’t expect this bounce-back in luxury pricing here and late 2019.

    2. Inventory and Days on Market

    Let’s talk about inventory and days on market it takes to sell a home? This is an interesting thing that not only has a seasonal ebb and flow, which means there’s more homes for sale in late summer than there are in winter, and it also takes a little bit longer to sell them in the winter than the summer. They’re inverse, but they’re very related.

    What’s interesting is that inventory and days on market are both down a little bit over 2018, which means we’re selling homes a little bit more quickly.

    3. Interest Rates

    This is a really unexpected situation with the economic environment and the lowering of the FED funds rate. Here we stand at 3.65% interest for 30-year loans. This is absolutely bananas and really quite unexpected.

    We’re actually paying 25% less in interest than we were just one year ago at 4.7%.

    What does that mean?

    Well, it’s like an insurance policy. When you can put this low interest on a purchase, it lowers your monthly payment by hundreds of dollars and really gives you security for decades to come. It gives you more assurance in buying in this market.

    To put all this in perspective, I think it would be good to talk about two different stories:

    One, I just spent the week in New York with some of the top agents in the world. What we talked about is what was affecting real estate all around the globe, especially in the feeder markets affecting Central Oregon. What I’m finding is that we’re seeing a correction and a decrease in prices in luxury real estate in a lot of the urban markets that are affected by the failure of foreign dollars to invest in U.S. real estate in 2019. The political environment has affected that and slowed down the dollar flow into those markets.

    Eventually—though we’re not primary markets for that type of investment— those dollars come here. So we need to keep our ear on the ground and realize that could affect us.

    Two, I just had an amazing meeting with Roger Lee, the CEO of Economic Development Council for Central Oregon. We had a lengthy discussion about the amazing entrepreneurial climate we have here in Bend, and how that provides security for both our economy and real estate going forward; it was incredibly reassuring. We have 60 robust industries growing here in Bend, and we are one of the most diverse and vibrant economic communities anywhere in the U.S.

    I feel good about the future of Bend.

    I’m happy to discuss how all these details come together when you’re considering purchasing or selling real estate in here in Bend. We at the Ladd Group are proud to serve you and we look forward to a fun fall and winter together.

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