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February Market Stats and Data

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The act of trying to make sense of the headlines while still being aware of the true conditions is a delicate, but important act. We believe that the value in working with a professional agent doesn’t come from just the act of buying or selling the house. We provide this information because we know the real value comes from the education, consultation, and preparation that it takes to help make the most of this big decision. Here is our take on what we are seeing in the market. Let us know when we can talk about how this affects you.

Median Home Price

According to MLS data, non-acreage, single families homes experienced a slight uptick in the median home price in January and closed the month at $680,000. We have talked at length in the past about seasonal cycles in the real estate market, but this uptick bucks the trend that would be expected. It also seems to conflict with what some of the headlines are saying, so why exactly is it ticking up? To start, we would like to reiterate that the median is simply the midpoint in the range of homes that sold in January. If one end of the market is more active than the other, this will move the median (see this short video from last year). Also, as the number of sales fall, this makes each data point more impactful, and often causes averages and median prices to appear more jittery. In the next section, we will discuss just how low the number of sales were in January, as this is one of the most important factors in continued price strength in the market.

Number of Sales

When you hear the headlines that home sales plummet or are at historic lows, it certainly would lead you to believe that prices would follow. With only 98 homes sold in January, there is no question that home sales are at historic lows in Bend. This is about 20% less than the next closest low over the last 10 years. So why have prices remained stubbornly steady despite dropping sales? To answer this, let’s look at why sales are falling. There is no doubt that as interest rates have risen, buyer demand has cooled. However, this is being compounded by the fact that there is also an historically low number of homes for sale. It is not that there are an abundant number of homes for sale and buyers just aren’t buying. Looking at the chart below, you can see that even though Bend has marginally more homes for sale than in the winter of 2020 and 2021, we still have about half as many homes for sale as we did pre-pandemic. In order for prices to fall more, there will have to be a combo of available inventory increasing and buyer demand cooling. The two key factors to watch in the coming months are interest rate movements and the number of new listings coming to market. Spring is historically a busy season in the real estate market and we will be watching how many new listings come to market and how eager buyers are to purchase. The balance of new listings and buyer demand will ultimately dictate the direction of prices. Until one or both of these factors change dramatically, prices will remain steady.

New Listings

Normally spring is the time for increased listing activity in Bend. In looking at the chart below, you can see that we normally see the fewest new listings coming to market in mid-winter and then see an increasing number of homes available through mid-summer before tapering again. With a fairly sizable uptick in new listings in January, this trend may have started a little early this year. With 128 new listings in January, there was an 80% increase over the number of new listings in December. This is a good example of how a headline could mislead the general public. If you were to see the headline, “New listings jump 80% month over month in Bend!”, it would certainly lead you to believe that there is an alarming number of homes coming to the market and that this would have a huge impact on prices. However, when you take into consideration the following are also true, that headline doesn’t seem quite so alarming:

  • January new listings are 30% lower than any other January in the last 20 years
  • The low from December was 30% lower than any other December in the last 20 years
  • About 23% of the new listings in January so in less than 1 week

When you see an alarming headline, give us a call. Some are real, others are simply just out of context.

Days on Market (DOM)

The continued trend of days on market increasing in Bend has been consistent for some time and the median now stands at 36 days on market. However, what we find interesting is that although the increase of the median seems to be slowing, the average days on market increased dramatically in January (see below). This would indicate that although sales overall were taking a little longer to sell, there were at least a few sales that closed in January that had a very large number of days on market. In fact, eight of the sales in January were on the market for 150 days or more compared to four in December. This pulled the median slightly higher, but ended up pulling the average substantially higher.

Average Sale to List Price

In January, Bend homes sold for an average of 98.3% of asking price. This is slightly lower than 98.4% in December and up slightly from the low in November of 97.7%. It would certainly appear that the days of almost everyone paying more than asking are behind us. As you can see from the chart below we are now very close to the range that was the standard before the start of the pandemic. We would expect homes to continue to sell in this range in the coming months.

Some other points to consider…

Mortgage Changes: Despite a few recent moves, interest rates seem to have stabilized and are currently in the low 6s for many buyers. 

National Price Projections: This is still holding steady with projections nationally showing anywhere from 5% appreciation to 5% depreciation, with most averages calling for a relatively flat year.

We hope you find this information valuable and that it helps you towards your ultimate real estate goals. If you have any questions about this month’s content or would like to dive a little deeper on the data, you can always reach me at steve@bendpropertysource.com or on my cell at 541-280-2132. Also, if you haven’t seen our latest installment of our State of the Market, please make sure to REGISTER HERE for your copy. It is packed with good information to help you in your real estate journey.

There are also several ways to reach the team, so please let us know how we can help. 

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