The new year has arrived, and with it comes the opportunity to see how the balance between buyers and sellers will settle. Many buyers have been sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the election and the new year to pass, while many sellers are likely planning to time the sale of their homes for this spring. As the year begins, we’re starting to see signs that buyer activity is picking up first. Let’s take a closer look at the monthly numbers to gain insights into whether this trend will continue.
Mortgage Rates
Could this be the year when interest rates aren’t the biggest driving factor in the market? It’s starting to feel like people are coming to terms with the fact that interest rates are unlikely to drop anywhere near as quickly as they had hoped. Although predictions still suggest that interest rates will likely be lower by the end of the year, the reality is that any decrease will likely be slight.

Looking at the pattern over the past year reinforces the point that, whatever happens with rates, the path is unlikely to be straightforward. Trying to time the market perfectly is nearly impossible, which is why we continue to encourage our clients to stay focused on what makes the most sense for them. Working with your lender and broker in advance will help you structure a plan that enables you to move forward with your life while remaining mindful of costs.

Median Price
During the final months of 2024, the median price fluctuated significantly between $700,000 and $800,000. The reasons for this volatility were discussed in detail in prior updates and the State of the Market reports, so we won’t revisit them here. However, by year-end, we observed some stability, with the median price closing the year just below $700,000. As we noted previously, when we zoom out and examine a rolling average of the median trends, the expected seasonal pattern of price movement becomes clear. Prices are slightly higher than they were at this time last year, and despite a year of changes, the market remains on stable ground.
Median Price (monthly)

Median Price (3 month rolling average)

New Listings
As expected, the number of new homes coming onto the market during the winter months has continued to decline month over month. December consistently sees the lowest number of new listings, and this year was no exception. Generally, people avoid listing their homes during the holidays for various reasons, often opting to wait until the new year to reassess the market and their needs.
We anticipate the number of new listings will increase steadily from now until July, with the majority appearing in May, June, and July. If you’re a seller wondering when to list, we strongly recommend having a conversation with us about the pros and cons of waiting. We’ve discussed how competing against fewer homes can be a distinct advantage in achieving your desired price. Additionally, during this time of year, there’s the potential benefit of structuring terms to provide added flexibility for you.
If you’ve been considering selling, let’s strategize.

Pending Sales and Homes for Sale
Typically, December is the slowest month for pending sales. This isn’t surprising, as many buyers settle in for the holidays and pause their searches until the new year. However, for two consecutive years, December has seen pending sales either match or surpass those in November. This indicates a growing trend of late-year activity in the market.
One possible explanation is that rising interest rates are prompting more buyers to act during a time when competition is lower, allowing them to potentially take advantage of motivated sellers. Another reason may be that patient buyers are reaching a point where they need to make a move.
We believe this trend will continue. Those who had previously been waiting for the “right” time will recognize their fundamental need for change and re-enter the market. Given these dynamics, it’s no surprise that experts are forecasting an over 10% increase in sales this year.


Given the fewer new listings coming onto the market and flat pending sales—combined with the fact that many homes are taken off the market or expire during the winter—it’s no surprise that the number of available homes is lower at the turn of the year. This reduced inventory limits buyers’ choices and may cause some to delay their search.
In the coming months, we expect many of these expired or canceled listings to return to the market. Additionally, as mentioned earlier, there will be sellers who have been trying to time the market but are now ready to move forward. Whether their homes feel too small, too large, or no longer meet their needs, these sellers will likely step off the sidelines and list their properties.
Given these factors, we believe buyers will have more choices in the coming months, which will likely lead to increased sales activity.

Days on Market (DOM)
The average and median days on market showed mixed results in December. While the average increased to 79 days, the median decreased to 49 days. Why the discrepancy? The quick answer is that the median represents the middle point of the range, with an equal number of sales above and below it, whereas the average accounts for all values, including extremes.
During the winter months, it’s common for some homes that have been on the market for an extended time to finally sell. These outliers significantly affect the average, pulling it higher, while having a much smaller impact on the median.
As new listings enter the market and go under contract and sell quickly, we expect the average to come back down. This aligns with the typical seasonal pattern of decreasing days on market from February through July.


Some other points to consider…
Sale to List Price: This has ticked up slightly and is currently at an average of 98.4% of list price. Here is a chart of this over the past few years. Please keep in mind that this is the sale to the last list price. If you take into account sale to original list price (price before any price reductions), this stat remains at 94.8%. Please keep in mind that averages are affected by extremes in the data set, and there are still a large number of homes trading hands at or very near their asking prices.
Inflation: This is a big indicator for the Fed and although the Fed cut their lending rate a few times now, inflation remains above the Fed’s target of 2%. You can see a chart of inflation here.
We hope you find this information valuable and that it helps you towards your ultimate real estate goals. If you have any questions about this month’s content or would like to dive a little deeper into the data, please reach out to your Ladd Group broker. If you don’t have one, you can reach me at steve@bendpropertysource.com or on my cell at 541-280-2132.
There are also several ways to reach the team, so please let us know how we can help.
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- info@bendpropertysource.com
- 541-633-4569
- Main office: 650 SW Bond St, Ste 100
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