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Market Update for Bend, Oregon – October 2021

Seasonal trends are definitely noticeable in the market, and buyers, sellers and brokers are trying to figure out where things stand. Days on market are creeping up and price changes remain prevalent, but the median home price ticked back up to essentially the high for the year. Some houses are still receiving multiple offers and others are struggling to sell. Based on the number of calls that we have gotten from both our clients and other colleagues, this market definitely has people scratching their heads. Let us help try to dissect what the data is telling us and what we are seeing in real time. 

Median Sales Price

Median Home Price 

According to MLS data, the median home price ticked back up in Bend to $650,000 which is 1.7% higher than where it was in August and sits just shy of the high of $660,000 from earlier this year. We are now 12% higher than where we were in January and 18% higher than at this time last year. If prior years are any indication, we would expect to see this median price continue to taper and fluctuate through the end of the year.

New Listings

New Listings

As expected, we saw fewer homes hit the market last month with 251 single family homes getting listed for sale.  This is about 25% less than what was seen in the peak of summer, but as with much of this data, this is a seasonal trend that is seen almost every year. It would not be surprising to see the number of homes be half this number by the end of the year. It is worth noting that 251 listings in September is inline with what we have seen in each of the last four years. 

Number of Homes Sold

Number of Homes Sold

Almost every year we see a drop in the number of homes sold in September compared to August, however this was not the case this year.  The number of homes sold in September (255) was about 4% higher than August (245).  These changes are marginal and not a huge indicator one way or another, but do help hammer home that homes that are priced right continue to sell in this market.  With the number of new listings slipping and the number of homes selling remaining strong, we do need to keep an eye on how this affects the overall supply of homes. If this imbalance in supply and demand continues, it will continue to keep pressure on prices.

Average Days on Market

Days on Market (DOM)

As was the case last month as well, the average time a listing spends on the market before going pending has increased again from 14 days in August to 21 days in September. Also, as we stated last month, the median days on market represents the middle number of the data set and this remains somewhat steady at seven days.  This would indicate that compared to a few months ago when these numbers were virtually the same, there are now some homes that have been on the market for lengthy periods that are selling and pulling this average higher.  The reason the median isn’t being pulled higher by the same rate is that the bulk of the homes are still selling very quickly.

Average Sale to List Price  

To finish the newsletter last month, we said…“Although we can’t predict this with any certainty, if the pace from recent months continues, we could see an average sale to list price of under 100% in the next two months.”  Well there is some good news for buyers and for the first time in a year, the average sale price is under the average list price and now sits at 99.5%. For comparison, the sale to list ratio was 97.3% in September 2018, 97.3% in 2019, and 99.9% in 2020. This shift would indicate that buyers are being more selective and patient in their offers and that sellers are having to acknowledge that wild extrapolations on price just won’t fly.

Seasonal trends are definitely noticeable in the market, and buyers, sellers and brokers are trying to figure out where things stand. Days on market are creeping up and price changes remain prevalent, but the median home price ticked back up to essentially the high for the year. Some houses are still receiving multiple offers and others are struggling to sell. Based on the number of calls that we have gotten from both our clients and other colleagues, this market definitely has people scratching their heads. Let us help try to dissect what the data is telling us and what we are seeing in real time. 

Median Sales Price

Median Home Price 

According to MLS data, the median home price ticked back up in Bend to $650,000 which is 1.7% higher than where it was in August and sits just shy of the high of $660,000 from earlier this year. We are now 12% higher than where we were in January and 18% higher than at this time last year. If prior years are any indication, we would expect to see this median price continue to taper and fluctuate through the end of the year.

New Listings

New Listings

As expected, we saw fewer homes hit the market last month with 251 single family homes getting listed for sale.  This is about 25% less than what was seen in the peak of summer, but as with much of this data, this is a seasonal trend that is seen almost every year. It would not be surprising to see the number of homes be half this number by the end of the year. It is worth noting that 251 listings in September is inline with what we have seen in each of the last four years. 

Number of Homes Sold

Number of Homes Sold

Almost every year we see a drop in the number of homes sold in September compared to August, however this was not the case this year.  The number of homes sold in September (255) was about 4% higher than August (245).  These changes are marginal and not a huge indicator one way or another, but do help hammer home that homes that are priced right continue to sell in this market.  With the number of new listings slipping and the number of homes selling remaining strong, we do need to keep an eye on how this affects the overall supply of homes. If this imbalance in supply and demand continues, it will continue to keep pressure on prices.

Average Days on Market

Days on Market (DOM)

As was the case last month as well, the average time a listing spends on the market before going pending has increased again from 14 days in August to 21 days in September. Also, as we stated last month, the median days on market represents the middle number of the data set and this remains somewhat steady at seven days.  This would indicate that compared to a few months ago when these numbers were virtually the same, there are now some homes that have been on the market for lengthy periods that are selling and pulling this average higher.  The reason the median isn’t being pulled higher by the same rate is that the bulk of the homes are still selling very quickly.

Average Sale to List Price  

To finish the newsletter last month, we said…“Although we can’t predict this with any certainty, if the pace from recent months continues, we could see an average sale to list price of under 100% in the next two months.”  Well there is some good news for buyers and for the first time in a year, the average sale price is under the average list price and now sits at 99.5%. For comparison, the sale to list ratio was 97.3% in September 2018, 97.3% in 2019, and 99.9% in 2020. This shift would indicate that buyers are being more selective and patient in their offers and that sellers are having to acknowledge that wild extrapolations on price just won’t fly.

Some other points to consider…

Inventory: This can also be referred to as months of supply and represents how long it would take to sell through the active homes if sales continued at the same pace. We currently have just over a month’s worth of inventory and still well below a balanced market (generally considered to be 6 months). 

Price Changes: We have been closely tracking price changes since this seems to be the number one talking point with most buyers. Although price changes have seemed high, it is worth pointing out how many we saw in the same months over the last few years.  Compared to the years prior to the pandemic, we have many fewer price changes. 

 

2018

2019

2020

2021

August

795

737

131

223

September

619

627

130

221

Oct 1-15

338

330

60

123

Interest Rates: We have seen a slight uptick in interest rates and for many borrowers they remain in the low 3% range.  Also, there have been some changes in terms of jumbo limits, and rates for second homes and investment properties, so let’s be sure you are up to speed with these as well. We have great contacts who can help you with this.

We hope you find this information valuable and that it helps you towards your ultimate real estate goals. There are several ways to reach us, so please let us know how we can help. 

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