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May Market Update

Median Home Price and Interest Rates

Probably the first thing that most people look at to see what is happening in the market is the median price. According to MLS data, the median price for single-family, non-acreage properties in Bend is now at $675,000. For perspective, this is about 13.5% off the peak price from last February. If you remember, last February was when interest rates started to tick up, creating a surge of activity as buyers jumped in with the hopes of securing a purchase before rates increased too much. From that point on, the real estate activity (and pricing) seemed to be moving in with a negative correlation with mortgage rates. As rates ticked down, activity picked up, and vice versa. The thing is, since October/November, there hasn’t been a big change in rates, and thus, no big changes in the market. The median price has now had six consecutive months where it ticked up, then ticked down, then back up, etc.  Every one of these moves has been marginal, being a 1-3% move, and we sit almost exactly where we were in October 2022 and almost exactly where we were in November 2021.

What is interesting is that if you look at this and look at the data nationwide (see below), it seems that the market could be finding some solid ground after a fairly significant decline from the peak. We still hear a lot from buyers that they are waiting for the market to correct, but in looking at the data, there has already been a correction that took place. Now this doesn’t mean that the floor is in, and it’s all blue skies from here; that’s not what we are saying.  But what we are saying is that for those who are looking to time their life change with a dip in the market, the signs are there that this could be a solid opportunity for that.

Pending Sales and New Listings

Pending sales ticked up slightly in April, with 180 homes in Bend receiving accepted offers. At the same time, we also saw 195 new listings come to market last month. This has served to give buyers a few more options and begin to replenish the inventory of homes for sale. For a good chunk of the last few years, pending sales were outpacing new listings, which was causing fewer and fewer homes for sale, making things very difficult for buyers. Although it is good to see this balance being restored, it is important to note that we are still well below the expectations for pending sales this time of year. Looking back 10 years, we can see that pre-pandemic, we normally have 250-300 monthly pending sales at the high every year. Also, that high took place in March, April, or May in each one of those years. Last month, we had 180 pending sales, so well under the average.

Although new listings outpaced pending sales last month, it is worth pointing out that there were fewer new listings in April than there were in March, which is certainly not the norm. One reason for this could be that the weather was late to pop this spring, and sellers have been waiting to get their homes listed until it shows best. Another reason could be that fewer people are going to sell this year due to a variety of reasons (they just moved, they like their interest rate and payment, and there isn’t anything compelling enough to get them to buy). The next few months will be telling since new listings historically peak later than pending sales do. Looking at the chart below, you can see that each year new listings top out in May, June, and July. This means that as sellers see the activity picking up in spring, they then decide to get their home listed and sometimes miss the rush itself. We will be watching this closely to see how this plays out this year.

Days on Market

This is another metric people love to track, and we understand why. In theory, it should paint a clear picture of how competitive the market is. Unfortunately, this isn’t always the case.  Right now, the median days on the market is about 10. However, would it surprise you to hear that the average days on market is 48. Why the discrepancy? Well, as we have been telling our clients, this market really is the tale of two markets. Right now, 43% of pending homes had an accepted offer in 7 days, and 73% of those were actually pending in less than 4 days.  At the same time, 10% of the homes that are pending right now took more than 100 days to sell, and a few of them have been on the market for almost a year.

Average Sale to List Price

Given the high number of homes selling almost immediately when they come to market, it should be no surprise that the average sale price is about 99% of the list price. The median sale-to-list percentage is actually back at 100%, so this should tell us that although some people are able to negotiate some discounts on overpriced listings, the midpoint and most of the sales are taking place right around the list price. However, for those homes that have been on the market for more than 100 days, the average sale to the original list price is closer to 92%. Keep in mind that this refers to the sale compared to the original list price, not necessarily the last list price. The stats show that after price reductions, homes on the market for over 100 days still sell at 97.8% of their last list price.

Some other points to consider…

Mortgage Changes: These have bounced around a bit, but remain fairly consistent and are roughly where they were to end 2022. Over the course of the last year, this is probably the biggest influencer of market activity. Here is the latest chart of current interest rates.

National Price Projections: These remain steady, with experts estimating a flat year or two with appreciation picking up and heading back to normal levels of 3-5% in 2025-2027.

Recessions: The talk of a coming recession has dominated the headlines for some time now. There are plenty of reasons that the experts are expecting this, and we don’t disagree. In prior state of the market reports (click here for the archive), we have talked about how in 4 of the last 6 recessions, home prices actually ticked up, but we thought this chart on interest rate movement during recessions would help provide some insights on why that happens.

We hope you find this information valuable and that it helps you towards your ultimate real estate goals. If you have any questions about this month’s content or would like to dive a little deeper into the data, please reach out to your Ladd Group broker. If you don’t have one, you can reach me at or on my cell at 541-280-2132. 

There are also several ways to reach the team, so please let us know how we can help. 

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