The holiday season is officially upon us, and with it usually comes slower activity in the real estate market. There are indisputable cyclical trends that we observe each year, and we expect the number of sales to continue to decline towards the end of the year. However, one of the largest factors affecting both buyers and sellers has been interest rates, and the news on this front has been positive. If this trend continues, we believe there’s a very real possibility it could buck some of the traditional trends. Let’s look at what’s happening.
Mortgage Rates
We normally begin our monthly update with a discussion on median home prices, but this month, we’ve decided to start with interest rates. Interest rates have been one of the biggest headlines in real estate this year and are a major reason why affordability is so challenging. They also contribute significantly to the lack of inventory for sale. As we’ve often mentioned, there are ‘would-be sellers’ who wish to move but can’t afford to exchange their sub-4% interest rate for one that’s double. However, the good news is that interest rates have stabilized and even started to decrease. Additionally, with inflation numbers declining and the Federal Reserve pausing its increases to the overnight lending rate, it’s likely that if this trend persists, the upward pressure on mortgage rates may continue to diminish. While this is all subject to change, at least temporarily, it shows signs of moving in the right direction.
It’s important to realize that rates are unlikely to return to the low levels we’ve seen in the past few years. Nonetheless, rate stability is a crucial factor for both buyers and sellers and will be what helps restore more normal transaction levels. We hope that some softening and stability in rates will enable sellers to make moves that better suit their needs. This would add inventory to the market, give buyers more options, and allow them to take advantage of lower rates to improve their lives at more affordable levels. If rates improve and we don’t see an increase in available homes, we could face a highly competitive market as buyers enter the fray to compete for very limited inventory. If rates don’t improve, we expect buyers and sellers to grow tired of waiting and proceed with their lives, even in an environment of elevated rates. For a live update on current interest rates, you can check here.
Median/Average Price
The median home price in Bend has slightly decreased this month, now standing at $735,000 for single-family homes on non-acreage properties. This is a reduction of about 7% from the highs in spring, but it’s also approximately 7% higher than where we started the year. Typically, in most years, there is a peak at some point in spring or early summer, followed by a decline of around 5-7%. Given this, the fluctuations we’ve seen so far this year are not uncommon, so we shouldn’t place too much emphasis on one metric alone. As we noted last month, the average price had been holding up stronger than the median. This suggested that some high-end sales were likely sustaining the higher average. However, in November, despite only a 4% drop in the median, we observed a 15% decrease in the average. This indicates that either the high-end sales have slowed down, or the lower end of the market is beginning to see some significantly lower numbers. We will continue to monitor the sales and try to detect subtle changes in activity, so we can help determine whether shifts in the numbers are indicative of overall market movements or are more confined to certain price points.


Days on Market (DOM)
If we also examine the comparison between the average and median for Days on Market, we notice that they moved in slightly different directions this past month. While the median number of days before an offer is accepted decreased from 17 to 16 days, the average increased from 30 to 40. This suggests that some homes sold last month had been on the market for quite some time. Looking at current pending sales, we see that about 21% of the homes had an offer accepted within a week, which is less than half of the median duration. However, we observed that almost exactly the same number of homes went pending in 90 days or more, which is more than five times the median. Anecdotally, it’s interesting to note that a number of homes which took 90 or more days to sell went pending with more than one offer. This specific detail might not be reflected in local statistics, but it’s a significant indicator, revealing that although buyers are keen not to overpay, they often have an equally strong fear of missing out.


New Listings
This development surprised us this month: for the first time in over 10 years, there were more new listings in October than in September. Is this an anomaly, or does it signal more inventory on the horizon? We can’t say for sure yet, but it’s worth noting that we couldn’t find a November with more new listings than October in past records. This suggests that the recent increase is likely a temporary fluctuation in the data, rather than a trend. One possible explanation for this could be the influx of new construction homes that came on the market, which won’t be completed until well into 2024. While these homes don’t address the immediate inventory shortage, they do offer a glimmer of hope and options for buyers who are able to wait.

Pending Sales
It’s not surprising that with fewer homes on the market, we are witnessing a decline in the number of homes sold each month. Additionally, it’s a common trend to see fewer homes selling as we approach the end of the year. However, what is surprising is the notably low number of homes going pending each month. In Bend (non-acreage, single-family), there were only 103 pending sales in October and about 80 so far in November. For perspective, these figures were closer to 150-200 in the same months in the years prior to the pandemic. This might initially seem to indicate a lack of interest in the market. But, when you consider the other data in this report, it actually suggests a different narrative. It appears that buyers are present and ready to act, yet they are being extremely patient, waiting for a compelling reason to make a move.

Average Sale to List Price
There isn’t much to report in this area. Some negotiating is occurring, but it aligns with Bend’s historical averages. Currently, homes are selling for an average of 98.9% of their last listed price. It’s important to note that if a home undergoes a price reduction and then sells at the new asking price, it would be recorded as selling at 100% of the last listed price. To account for this, we also compare sale prices to the original list prices. This comparison reveals that homes are selling at an average of just under 96% of their original asking prices. This indicates that while some negotiation is happening, it is neither extraordinary nor excessive.

We hope you find this information valuable and that it helps you towards your ultimate real estate goals. If you have any questions about this month’s content or would like to dive a little deeper into the data, please reach out to your Ladd Group broker. If you don’t have one, you can reach me at steve@bendpropertysource.com or on my cell at 541-280-2132.
There are also several ways to reach the team, so please let us know how we can help.
- facebook.com/bendpropertysource/
- Bendpropertysource.com
- info@bendpropertysource.com
- 541-633-4569
- Main office: 650 SW Bond St, Ste 100
- Tetherow Sales Office
- Assembly Office in Northwest Crossing
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