We like to provide you with 12 month snapshots in the weekly “What’s Happening in Tetherow” article, but for this quarterly edition we thought it would be good to discuss the year to data and see how this compares to years past, other resort communities, and to the market as a whole.
Let’s start with a discussion of average prices in Tetherow. For years this has been artificially low due to the high volume of builder spec homes, vacation homes, and the planned communities near the clubhouse. However, we have squarely entered a resale market in Tetherow where we are seeing many more custom homes come to the market and drive the averages higher. Here is a snapshot of the average prices for single family homes in Tetherow over the last 5 years.
|Homes||# of Sales||Average Price||% change from previous year|
For comparison, here is what year to date looks like for some of the other (similar) resort communities in Central Oregon.
|2022 YTD||# of Sales||Average Price||% change from previous year|
Please take these numbers as quick snapshots and not overall indications of appreciation or market opportunity. As with any statistics, there is always something behind the numbers that offers a slightly different perspective on the data. For instance, in 2021 in Brasada, about ⅓ of the sales were 15 year old rental cabins and therefore kept the average price lower that year. This led to a surge in average price in 2022. Also for Caldera, there was a big shift to the new short term rental eligible 6 and 7 bedroom homes and, pulling the average price point higher. All the neighborhoods have done well, and it really is important to look at the specific type of home to see how it has performed over time.
We often talk of supply and demand being the driving factor in real estate. Yes, it is true that interest rates, equity, and employment are all factors that affect real estate. However, ultimately they lead to adjustments to supply and demand and this affects prices. If we look at land sales in Tetherow over the past few years, there is no clearer example of supply and demand at play. At the end of 2020 we sold the final developer lots in Tetherow, which led to a lack of supply. This combined with the pandemic rush to grab a piece of real estate in Bend boosted demand substantially. The initial rush in 2020 went to housing as people flocked to homes they could use immediately, but by the beginning of 2021, the rush on lots began. The problem for buyers was that at that point, they were mostly gone. Here is a quick snapshot on Tetherow land YTD and where we have been for the last few years.
|Land||# of Sales||Average Price||% change from previous year|
The million dollar question is, what do we see moving forward? Of course, there is no crystal ball for this, but here is what we are seeing as a few things that could affect the supply and demand (and ultimately prices) in the coming months:
- Inventory has risen in Tetherow with 11 homes available above $2M, 8 of which are above $3M. Competition on the listing side has buyers being a little more patient and waiting to see what happens in the market and economy.
- Conversations are happening every day about potential spring listings, so we would expect a number of homes to come on the market in early 2023, which would add to this inventory and potentially keep prices in check.
- Sellers with financing in place have likely refinanced to a 3% interest rate in the past year, and so may hold off on selling their home since their purchase is likely closer to 7%. This can serve to damper the supply moving forward which could help keep prices strong.
- Experts do not expect interest rates to rise much higher and to taper and settle in the 6-7% range. These experts also predicted in January that rates would end the year 4-5%, so let’s take this with a grain of salt.
- There are less than 10% of the total single family home sites in Tetherow that remain unbuilt and many of these are in design review or have no plan to sell. Given this, the number of opportunities to build in Tetherow will be kept to a minimum in the coming years.
Analyzing the data and keeping up with the trends is a daily task for us. We believe there are opportunities for both buyers and sellers right now, but we need to be strategic and have a plan. We have great confidence in Tetherow and its future, and are excited to be celebrating our 10th year as the onsite broker team. We would love to talk about your needs and how to make those a reality.
How To Contact Our Team
There are several ways to reach the team, so please let us know how we can help. Call, text, email or stop by the Tetherow Sales Office for more information!
Tetherow Sales Office – 61240 SKYLINE RANCH ROAD, BEND, OR 97702
541.633.4034 I Tetherow@BendPropertySource.com
Click here to sign up for our monthly newsletter! You can unsubscribe anytime.