Market Statistics and Data
June 2020 Market Update
Bend has now entered Phase 2 of the reopening and so things continue to work toward a return to normal. Although we are not quite there yet, it is nice to see more businesses and restaurants reopening and more people out and about.
Nationally, the markets had some good news last week with the unemployment figures coming in well under analyst expectations. There is some discrepancy as to whether it was 13.3% or 16.3%, but either way it is better than the 19.7% that was reported in April, and the over 20% that some analysts had been expecting for May.
Also, on a national level, the rate of home showings has finally caught up with (and surpassed) the rate of showings for 2019 (chart 1). This is a very positive sign and a confirmation of what we had been predicting since the April lows. Time will tell how this will continue, but it is good to see that we have rebounded substantially from the initial fear that set in just a couple months ago.
Although the showing activity graph allows us to see what is happening nationally, we have to look at local data from the MLS to get an idea of what is happening at home. Seeing people back out and shopping is great, but it is more important to see if this activity is leading to sales. Chart 2 below shows how monthly Pending activity has compared from 2019 to 2020 for each of the first five months of the year. The effects of COVID in March and April are pretty clear, but it is just as apparent that we actually saw more sales activity in May 2020 than we did in 2019.
When trying to assess what pricing will do, we also have to look at the other part of the equation: supply. When looking at the weekly totals for pending activity and comparing that to the number of new homes that are coming to market over the same period, we are seeing an imbalance. Specifically, we have seen the number of pending home sales outpace the number of new listings for five consecutive weeks (Chart 3).
Despite what would be considered upward pressure on pricing, after a couple months of increases, the median home price saw a small decrease in Bend in May and is now at $445,000. This puts it back where it was earlier this year, before the pandemic took hold. We expect that with the upward pressures described above, combined with low continued low interest rates, this median home price will continue to hold strong and push slightly higher in the coming months.
We will continue to keep you posted on monthly data through this newsletter, but of course please do reach out to us to find out how this all could affect you. We are always happy to talk in more depth and can schedule a time that works for you.
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