Market Statistics and Data
October 2020 Market Update
With the crisp mornings and leaves changing colors, it is obvious that Fall is upon us. With that usually come some changes in the real estate market. This seasonal cycle is somewhat predictable, and although there are some signs of seasonal slowing, the market remains strong.
Probably the biggest factor at play is the extreme lack of inventory. We have made mention of this in our previous newsletters, but the inventory level just continues to drop. We are currently sitting at less than one month of inventory. This means that if no new homes come on the market, and homes continue to sell at the same pace, we will be out of homes to sell by this time next month. This is staggering and is lower than any point we can see on record for our Bend market.
Low inventory combined with consistently high demand has continued to push the median home price up for the 4th month in a row. It now sits at $547,000 which is about 3% higher than where it was in August and almost 22% higher than where it was at the beginning of 2020.
Another major contributing factor to this gain in median value has been the increased number of luxury homes selling since the start of the pandemic. The chart below shows the number of homes $1M and higher going Pending monthly for the last 3 years. Given this spike, it is no surprise that the median price has moved at such an extreme pace.
The steady increase in prices means that more people will start to consider selling. In fact, we have seen more new listings in Aug and Sep than we did in 2019, which indicates that prices and inventory may start to stabilize a bit. This is a good trend that should continue as more people who have considered selling decide to move forward and get their homes listed.
Seasonal and Political Factors
We have repeatedly seen that real estate activity drops during the holidays and winter, which is only magnified in election years such as this one. If you are on our mailing list, you may have seen this graphic in your mailboxes, but it helps drive home what we generally see happen in between October and November in both election years and non-election years. (Please note: The graph shows that in most years, fewer homes are expected to sell in November than in October, but in election years, there are even fewer. These stats are unrelated to housing prices; they simply show monthly sold activity.)
However, a leading real estate research firm found that the year following a presidential election year is often the best of the 4-year cycle.
“This suggests that demand for new housing is not lost because of election uncertainty, rather it gets pushed out to the following year as long as the economy stays on track.” — Meyers Research and Zonda
Of course we don’t know exactly how the next few months will play out, but now more than ever, it is important to be prepared and know your options. Everyone’s situation is unique, so we can’t say across the board that now is the time to make a move. We would love the opportunity to schedule a phone, Zoom, or in-person meeting to help you see how all of these factors could affect your situation and help you craft your plan.
As always, be sure to check to follow us on Facebook at facebook.com/bendpropertysource/. If you’re not on social media, don’t hesitate to call or email us so we can send you the information you need via email or through our website at bendpropertysource.com.
Call our main office line at 541-633-4569 if you have any questions!
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