Market Statistics and Data
February Market Update
In last month’s market update we discussed how winter weather can affect the housing market. In the last 30 days we have seen a few winter storms roll through Central Oregon, but as of yet, it does not seem to be impacting the housing market. The numbers continue to remain strong and are pointing toward a busy spring/summer season.
Median Home Price
For a few months now, we have been studying yearly trends around median home prices in the winter. As has been the case in each of the last 5 years, the median home price fell in the final two months of the year before rebounding in January. This pattern was more dramatic this year with the median price jumping nearly 10% from December ($524k) to January ($575k). This large jump is at least in part due to the fact that significantly fewer homes under $300,000 sold in January (6) compared to December (25).
As expected, we saw an uptick in the number of new listings; however the increase was marginal, bumping up slightly from 209 new listings in December to 221 in January. Based on the cyclical nature of homes being listed for sale, we expect this number to continue to increase as we head into the spring months.
In addition, we expect that many owners who have been considering selling but held back because of COVID concerns will become more comfortable selling as vaccines are more widely distributed. There are also a number of people who had the urge to sell in the summer/fall, but couldn’t quite get all the pieces in place to make the move. For many, the fear of selling and not having any place to go has been a real concern, but we are seeing more of these people finding replacement homes or completing their new builds, pushing them to finally prepare their homes for sale.
The chart below shows the typical pattern of seasonal new listings coming onto the market.
Number of Homes Sales
One of the best ways for us to track real time activity and demand is to track the number of homes going pending each month. Each year we see our peak in the summer months and lows in the winter months. What is interesting in looking at the chart below is that our lows this winter are just slightly below the highs from the past five years. As you can see from the chart, our Pending sales are picking back up after a drop off in Nov and Dec and we would expect this would continue to increase through the spring and summer months.
Days on Market (DOM)
This stat remains at historic lows, with homes going Pending in an average of just four days. This is now the 5th month in a row in which homes are selling in less than a week. No matter how you look at the data, the average DOM the lowest since we began collecting data. The chart below shows the average time to closing, which is less than one month. With most financed deals being a minimum of 30 days, the fact that the average time to close is only 23 days demonstrates how many buyers are paying cash or figuring out a way to speed up their timelines.
What does all this mean?
Here are some ongoing expectations:
We expect the supply of homes to grow, which should provide some listing/home inventory relief.
We expect that buyer demand will grow as those who couldn’t get their move together in the fall start to shop again this winter and spring. On the flip side, we expect that companies will start to bring some of their employees back to the office, reducing the number of people who can be 100% remote. Based on the timing and extent of this “remote work pullback” we would expect that to lessen the demand somewhat.
Based on what we are hearing from the experts, we expect interest rates to remain low but to start to creep back up. If this is true, demand will increase significantly in the short term as people rush to take advantage of low rates before they rise too much. If they rise quickly, we may see some people take a chance and sit and wait for another drop.
We are actively tracking the data and the general sentiment in the market in order to keep you informed. However, each person’s situation is different. For some, sitting and waiting to sell or buy is the best option; for others, the time is now. We want to make sure you are prepared to act whenever the time is right. We are scheduling Zoom calls or socially distant meetings daily and would love to get one set up with you as well. Please reach out and schedule a time to meet.
As always, you can reach us a number of ways…
- 650 SW Bond St, Ste 100
- Tetherow Sales Office
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We bought a home in 2017 and I found Alice randomly on a Web site and was so happy I did. She has bent absolutely over backwards in helping us find our dream home. She has been 100% clear about all facets of buying a home and carefully explained everything to us in full detail as we meandered in and out of the home buying process! We couldn’t have done it without her!
Denise was very supportive and helpful during the house buying and selling process. She was knowledgeable; and her steady, low key style suited my likes and needs. I very much enjoyed working with her.
Steve LaCrosse at the Ladd Group is simply THE BEST realtor!!! Steve helped us find our dream condo in Bend, and literally made the process smooth, seamless and effortless. Steve took care of so many things because we were moving to Bend long distance and even after the purchase, Steve was helping us with the little things to make sure we were settled in and comfortable. Steve went above and beyond and definitely went the extra mile for us!! We give Steve our highest recommendation, and would re…
We had a great experience working with Bryan Hilts an associate of Brian Ladd. Bryan is very knowledgeable and patient. Very professional. We looked at a broad range of homes in several different neighborhoods to get a feel for Bend and the activities associated with each neighborhood. I would recommend Bryan and anticipate continuing to do business with him.
We listed our house with the Ladd Group and they sold it in a day. Everybody on the team (Brian, Kim, and Denise) gave excellent support throughout the process. These people know what they’re doing.
Brian has been very careful to listen to our home purchase desires and showed us appropriate possibilities. He took us through information steps that we had never thought of as we purchased a historic home. I would and have recommend Brian to anyone who is interested in real estate in the central Oregon territory. I appreciate his professionalism. -Susan Reyes
My experience with the Ladd Group has been superior, due in large part to the efforts of Alice Fairbairn. Alice has been a true professional, and a pure delight to work with, and one of the very few people I have worked with over the years who seemed to have a genuine interest in my needs, instead of just focusing on the sale. Her associate, Allison Wiggins was also a positive part of the process. The Ladd group is indeed fortunate to have these two professionals as members of their group.
Brian was the best agent to work with. He was always willing to work around my difficult and last minute schedule. He understands his clients and works to get them what they want while looking out for their best interests. His background in construction, knowledge of the industry really helped as well. I HIGHLY recommend him. -Anonymous
We recently moved to Bend and started looking for our new home. Erin Martin was one of the few brokers we contacted, however she was unique in that she intuitively understood what we were seeking and appreciated our exacting requirements. Actually Erin was the only broker that suggested we also look at new construction as a way to avoid purchasing something that we might feel would require extensive remodeling. She was right on the money! When we decided on the home we wanted it was still in the…
My husband and I decided we loved Oregon and wanted to start house hunting. Since we currently live out of country Alice sent us weekly updates of houses on the market that matched our criteria. When we came into town she rearranged her schedule to accommodate us. We were impressed by the effort she put into giving us all the information we asked for and when she didn’t know, she always found the answer. Looking for a home is time consuming so the weekly updates were very helpful in monitoring t…