July’s numbers may be showing the beginning of an important shift in buyer behavior. For much of the spring, buyers had the luxury of waiting. New listings were arriving regularly, inventory was growing, and there was always the possibility that a better option might appear the following week. That dynamic appears to be changing.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates remained stubbornly elevated through July, continuing to hover in the mid to upper 6% range. At this point, buyers have been waiting for meaningful rate relief for quite some time, and there remains little certainty about when it will arrive. Looking at the chart, you can see that we are essentially at the highest level over the last 12 months. Although Federal Reserve interest rate decisions don’t directly affect mortgage rates, their recent comments are indicating conditions that don’t suggest mortgage rate relief is in the near future. 

As we will see in a subsequent section, rather than assuming lower borrowing costs are imminent, buyers increasingly appear to be making decisions around today’s rates. For buyers who have a genuine reason to move, waiting indefinitely for the perfect combination of lower rates, lower prices, and more inventory may simply no longer feel like a practical strategy.

Median Home Price

The median home price increased from $775,000 in June to $800,000 in July. This puts the median almost exactly where it stood in July of both 2022 and 2023, when the median was also $800,000.

That historical comparison continues to reinforce an important point we have discussed throughout the year. Despite considerable month-to-month movement, Bend home prices have spent several years moving within a relatively broad range rather than following a clear upward or downward trajectory.

July’s $800,000 median is also approximately 4.8% higher than July 2025’s $763,148 median. However, as we saw earlier this year, monthly median price movements can be heavily influenced by the mix of homes that happen to close. The better takeaway is that pricing continues to show considerable resilience despite elevated borrowing costs and a much more selective buyer environment.

Inventory and New Listings

Inventory increased only slightly in July, from 806 homes in June to 815. The more important number may be new listings. After falling sharply from 383 in May to 281 in June, new listings declined again to 273 in July. This is where the market may be beginning to change.Earlier in the spring, buyers could afford to be patient because new choices were continually entering the market. As that pipeline slows, the assumption that a better option will appear next week becomes less reliable. Buyers who have been waiting may now be looking more seriously at homes they previously passed over.

It is also worth putting current inventory in perspective. July 2025 had 997 available homes compared with 815 this July, meaning buyers have approximately 18% fewer homes to choose from than they did one year ago. Inventory remains considerably better than during the extreme shortages of several years ago, but the direction of new supply matters. If fewer homes continue entering the market, buyers may find their negotiating position is not improving simply because we are moving later into the year.

Pending Sales and Absorption

Pending sales declined slightly from 215 homes in June to 202 in July. On its own, that would suggest somewhat softer buyer activity. However, the decline needs to be considered alongside the reduction in available new inventory.

July’s 202 pending sales were essentially identical to the 200 recorded in July 2025. More importantly, the absorption rate remained healthy at approximately 28%. That is below June’s unusually strong 30.6%, but considerably higher than the 22% absorption rate recorded in July of last year.

This suggests demand is holding up reasonably well relative to the inventory available. Buyers have not suddenly rushed back into the market, but neither are they disappearing. Instead, they appear to be gradually adjusting to the reality of the market they have rather than continuing to wait for the market they hoped might arrive.

Days on Market

Days on market may be the most revealing statistic this month. Homes that went pending in July averaged 33 days on market, up from 23 days in June, 14 days in May, and just 11 days in April. Earlier this spring, we discussed the enormous gap between the age of active inventory and the homes buyers were actually purchasing. Buyers were largely ignoring older listings and moving quickly when something new and compelling came to market. July’s numbers suggest that gap may be beginning to narrow.

An increase in pending-sale days on market does not necessarily mean buyers have become less active. In this case, it may mean the opposite. With fewer new listings arriving, buyers appear more willing to reconsider homes that have already been available for several weeks. A property that was passed over a month ago may look different today when there are fewer new alternatives entering the market. For sellers, this does not mean every stale listing will suddenly sell. Pricing, condition, presentation, and perceived value still matter. But buyers who need to make a move may be becoming more willing to work with the choices available rather than waiting indefinitely for something better.

Additional Points to Consider

Negotiation:

The sale-to-list price ratio remained unchanged at 98.7%. Despite homes taking longer to go under contract, buyers are not negotiating substantially larger discounts once they engage with a property. This is another indication that the increase in pending-sale days on market should not automatically be interpreted as weakening demand.

Pricing Strategy:

The sale-to-original-list price ratio declined slightly from 96.6% in June to 96.4% in July. This means that sellers continue giving up considerably more through price reductions before receiving an offer than they do during the final negotiation.

That remains one of the clearest lessons for sellers in today’s market. Buyers may be broadening the pool of homes they are willing to consider, but they are not abandoning their sensitivity to value. Homes that begin too far above the market can still spend weeks being overlooked before eventually adjusting to a price that attracts a buyer.

Cash vs. Financing:

Cash purchases increased from 27.5% in June to 30.7% in July. While this reduced the financed share of transactions slightly, nearly seven out of ten purchases still involved financing. Mortgage rates remain an important constraint, but they are clearly not preventing buyers from participating altogether.

Bottom Line

July’s data appears to mark another stage in the adjustment we have been watching throughout the year. During the spring, buyers could afford to be extremely selective because inventory was growing and new choices were arriving every week. Now, new listings have slowed considerably, inventory is barely increasing, and mortgage rates have given buyers little reason to believe waiting will dramatically improve affordability.

The result may be a subtle change in psychology. Buyers who need to move appear to be shifting from asking, “What might come on the market next?” to asking, “What is the best option available to me now?”

The increase in days on market for pending sales may be the clearest evidence of that change. Buyers are reaching further into existing inventory and purchasing homes that they may have passed over earlier in the season. At the same time, sale-to-list ratios remain strong and the absorption rate remains healthy, suggesting this is not simply a story of weakening demand.

For sellers, that creates an opportunity, but not a free pass. Buyers may be expanding what they are willing to consider, but they remain highly sensitive to price and value. For buyers, the market still offers negotiating opportunities, particularly on homes that have been available for a while, but waiting for dramatically better inventory or dramatically lower rates carries its own risk.

We hope you find this information valuable and that it helps you move toward your real estate goals. If you have any questions about this month’s data or would like to explore how it applies to your specific situation, please reach out to your Ladd Group broker. If you do not have one, you can reach me directly at steve@bendpropertysource.com or on my cell at 541-280-2132.

There are also several ways to reach the team, so please let us know how we can help.

• facebook.com/bendpropertysource/
• BendPropertySource.com
• info@bendpropertysource.com
• 541-633-4569
• Main Office: 650 SW Bond St., Suite 100
• Tetherow Sales Office

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