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Market Statistics and Data

Market Update

The new year has arrived and with it comes the prospect of change and prosperity. We don’t know for sure what 2022 will have in store for the real estate market, but the expectations are that the market will remain tight and prices will continue higher. We are basing this on what we are reading from the experts, hearing from our clients and seeing in the data. Let’s dive in.

Median Home Price 

According to MLS data, the median home price came off slightly from the highs in November and now sits at $675,000. Although this number did go down slightly, it only represented a small 1.2% decline. To provide some perspective, the median home price in December of 2020 was $525,000, and so this represents a 28.5% increase in just 12 months. As we discussed in our last webinar, home price appreciation has been flattening overall. This does not mean that prices are flattening, it means that the amount in which prices are increasing has been slowing. However, this trend seems to have been bucked in December and we are interested to see which direction it heads in January.

New Listings

December is generally the month when the fewest number of new homes hit the market.  This was also the case in 2021, but it is worth noting that the number of new listings was actually higher than four of the last six Decembers. More new listings coming on in the middle of winter and over the holidays can at least be taken as a good sign that sellers are eager to get their houses on the market and take advantage of the high demand. Many choose to wait until the holidays are done and wait for the weather to warm prior to listing. However, we have been saying that we expect listings to pick up earlier this year, and perhaps this is the first sign of this. We can also say that weather plays a factor in this as well, and if these milder conditions continue, we can almost certainly expect to see the “spring” listing season kickoff early.

Number of Homes Available

The number of homes sold in December (186) was consistent with activity we saw for a number of Decembers leading into the pandemic. However, one of the major underlying factors responsible for a lot of the upward price pressure in the market is the lack of available homes for sale. Although the number of homes that are selling is consistent, it is worth pointing out that the number of available homes is drastically lower than where it was pre-pandemic. There are currently 80% fewer homes for buyers to choose from than there were in 2019. Without added inventory for buyers to choose from, upward price pressure will continue. 

Days on Market (DOM)

The median days on market ticked up slightly again in December. This represents the 6th month in a row that this data point increased from the previous month and it now sits at twelve days on market. We would like to point out that although the median days on market sits just shy of two weeks, the average days on market is now just above one month. Why the discrepancy? Simply put, although a large number of homes are selling in just a couple of weeks, there are a small number of homes that are drastically overpriced and sit on the market for months and thus drag the average higher.  

Average Sale to List Price

At its peak, the average sale to list price showed homes selling for roughly 5% more than they were listed. This average has come down significantly and now homes are on average selling right at list price. However, the chart does look like this is picking up ever so slightly, so time will have to tell if this will continue higher or continue to normalize. As a reminder, Bend sale prices had been averaging about 96-98% of list price for the years leading up to the pandemic. 

Some other points to consider…

Mortgage changes: There have been a few updates and we would strongly encourage any buyers to discuss these with their lender. As a reminder, if you have been looking for a while, pre-approvals do need to be updated, so when you are talking with your lender, make sure to update them on your status and plans.

  • We have seen another uptick in interest rates for many borrowers and they now sit between 3.25 and 3.5.   
  • Rates are expected to continue to rise slowly throughout the year.  
  • Investment and second homes will likely cost more in terms of rates and fees starting in April.

National Projections: If price is your number one concern, waiting for a correction is not what the experts would recommend. We have been tracking the predictions of a group of experts (National Association of Realtors, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc) and their estimates show between 2.8-7.4% appreciation nationwide in 2022. We would expect Bend to continue to outpace the national average. 

We hope you find this information valuable and that it helps you towards your ultimate real estate goals. There are several ways to reach us, so please let us know how we can help. 

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Brian has been very careful to listen to our home purchase desires and showed us appropriate possibilities. He took us through information steps that we had never thought of as we purchased a historic home. I would and have recommend Brian to anyone who is interested in real estate in the central Oregon territory. I appreciate his professionalism. -Susan Reyes
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