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Market Statistics and Data

The new year is here and if you’re like many of us, with that comes resolutions and plans for making this year a successful one. While we can’t help you with making it to the gym or counting calories, we certainly can help you achieve your objectives when it comes to real estate. Part of that is sharing what trends we are seeing emerge and the other part is sitting down and crafting a strategy that gets you there. Let’s start with the data.

Median Home Price

After an up and down year, we officially ended 2022 with a median home price almost exactly where we ended in 2021. We started 2022 at $675,000 and then quickly ran up to $773,000 in March before gradually tapering lower throughout the rest of the year and closing at $678,000. This left us roughly 13% off the high from spring, which is roughly double the normal decline from peak to trough in any given year. What was also strange about this past year was the way that every month since May had alternating appreciation and then depreciation with regard to the median. Normally we see more sustained movement in either direction before shifting course. The shifts in interest rates and stock market levels certainly played a part in this, but there were also other factors at play. One key factor is that with many fewer sales overall, the median and average will shift more when there are a higher number of sales at one extreme end of the market on any given month. This happened on a number of occasions this past year, while in years past, there were more sales to absorb a shift in price point in any given month. The experts are expecting fewer sales than last year, so this trend might very well continue throughout 2023.

Homes for Sale

Inventory held steady in December and still sits at 1.5 months. This is likely not what you would expect after seeing some of the headlines about sales plummeting over the course of the last few months. This is why we caution our clients not to get caught up with the headlines. We certainly have seen far fewer sales these past few months than in years past. There were 98 sales in Dec 2022 compared to between 150-200 in the last few Decembers. However, since there are also fewer homes coming on the market, the length of time it would take to sell through the current homes if no new ones came on the market (i.e. inventory) has not changed. In December there were only 56 new listings in Bend compared to closer to 100 in prior Decembers. Also, with homes being pulled from the market for winter and others holding off on listing their homes until spring, there is still a very serious shortage of homes. We will be watching closely to see what happens this spring as new inventory comes on the market. Will it get snatched up by the buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for favorable rates or will the added inventory cause buyers to sit on the sidelines in hopes that more inventory will come later? At this point we don’t know the answer to this question. But what we do know is that in the last six months, we have seen a few periods of increased activity and it was entirely driven by interest rate movements. If interest rates continue their recent lowering trend, we believe it will certainly get some buyers to make the move. 

Days on Market (DOM)

In December, the median time it took for a home in Bend to sell was 30 days. This is up from about 18 days in November, but also in line with the 28 days from September. There are a few reasons for this number jumping around so much. First, the movements in interest rates have certainly affected how quickly buyers are willing to act. As rates rise, homes tend to sit a little longer, and as they fall, they sell more quickly. Second, as the number of sales decreases, there are fewer data points to pull from, pullingl the median in one direction. Despite a rising overall days on market, we would also like to point out that in Q4, about 25% of the homes were still selling in less than a week. As sellers become more motivated and realistic with their pricing, the amount of time it takes to sell will decrease.  

Average Sale to List Price

The average sale to list price actually ticked up from 97.7% to 98.4% in December. It may seem contradictory to see homes sitting for longer while also selling closer to asking price. One might think that as homes sit longer, buyers would have more negotiating power. Although this is often true, it is not always the case. The reality is that what we said in the last section also holds true here. As sellers become more realistic with their pricing, sales will not only happen faster, but they will also happen closer to the asking price. As you can see in the chart below, we are now fairly close to the statistical average for the years leading up to the pandemic and so we would expect that it would remain in this range in the coming months. 

Some other points to consider…

Mortgage changes: Interest rates have been very up and down over the last six months and we currently sit at about a four month low. As mentioned above, this has been a strong driver of buyer activity. 

National price projections: This is still holding steady with projections nationally showing anywhere from 5% appreciation to 5% depreciation, with most averages calling for a relatively flat year. 

Price Changes: This month we saw two things with regard to price changes supporting the claim that sellers are more realistic with their pricing.

  1. There were 53% fewer price changes in the market
  2. The median price drop decreased from $60k to $41k  

We hope you find this information valuable and that it helps you towards your ultimate real estate goals. If you have any questions about this month’s content or would like to dive a little deeper on the data, you can always reach me at steve@bendpropertysource.com or on my cell at 541-280-2132. Also, if you haven’t seen our latest installment of our State of the Market, please make sure to REGISTER HERE for your copy. It is packed with good information to help you in your real estate journey.

There are also several ways to reach the team, so please let us know how we can help. 

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