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    Market Statistics and Data

    February Market Update

    In last month’s market update we discussed how winter weather can affect the housing market. In the last 30 days we have seen a few winter storms roll through Central Oregon, but as of yet, it does not seem to be impacting the housing market. The numbers continue to remain strong and are pointing toward a busy spring/summer season. 

    Median Home Price 

    For a few months now, we have been studying yearly trends around median home prices in the winter. As has been the case in each of the last 5 years, the median home price fell in the final two months of the year before rebounding in January. This pattern was more dramatic this year with the median price jumping nearly 10% from December ($524k) to January ($575k). This large jump is at least in part due to the fact that significantly fewer homes under $300,000 sold in January (6) compared to December (25). 

    New Listings

    As expected, we saw an uptick in the number of new listings; however the increase was marginal, bumping up slightly from 209 new listings in December to 221 in January. Based on the cyclical nature of homes being listed for sale, we expect this number to continue to increase as we head into the spring months. 

    In addition, we expect that many owners who have been considering selling but held back because of COVID concerns will become more comfortable selling as vaccines are more widely distributed. There are also a number of people who had the urge to sell in the summer/fall, but couldn’t quite get all the pieces in place to make the move. For many, the fear of selling and not having any place to go has been a real concern, but we are seeing more of these people finding replacement homes or completing their new builds, pushing them to finally prepare their homes for sale. 

    The chart below shows the typical pattern of seasonal new listings coming onto the market.

     

    Number of Homes Sales

    One of the best ways for us to track real time activity and demand is to track the number of homes going pending each month. Each year we see our peak in the summer months and lows in the winter months. What is interesting in looking at the chart below is that our lows this winter are just slightly below the highs from the past five years. As you can see from the chart, our Pending sales are picking back up after a drop off in Nov and Dec and we would expect this would continue to increase through the spring and summer months. 

     

    Days on Market (DOM)

    This stat remains at historic lows, with homes going Pending in an average of just four days. This is now the 5th month in a row in which homes are selling in less than a week. No matter how you look at the data, the average DOM the lowest since we began collecting data. The chart below shows the average time to closing, which is less than one month. With most financed deals being a minimum of 30 days, the fact that the average time to close is only 23 days demonstrates how many buyers are paying cash or figuring out a way to speed up their timelines. 

     

    What does all this mean?

    Here are some ongoing expectations:

    Supply

    We expect the supply of homes to grow, which should provide some listing/home inventory relief. 

    Demand

    We expect that buyer demand will grow as those who couldn’t get their move together in the fall start to shop again this winter and spring. On the flip side, we expect that companies will start to bring some of their employees back to the office, reducing the number of people who can be 100% remote. Based on the timing and extent of this “remote work pullback” we would expect that to lessen the demand somewhat. 

    Interest Rates

    Based on what we are hearing from the experts, we expect interest rates to remain low but to start to creep back up. If this is true, demand will increase significantly in the short term as people rush to take advantage of low rates before they rise too much. If they rise quickly, we may see some people take a chance and sit and wait for another drop. 

    We are actively tracking the data and the general sentiment in the market in order to keep you informed. However, each person’s situation is different. For some, sitting and waiting to sell or buy is the best option; for others, the time is now. We want to make sure you are prepared to act whenever the time is right. We are scheduling Zoom calls or socially distant meetings daily and would love to get one set up with you as well. Please reach out and schedule a time to meet. 

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    Testimonials

    We bought a home in 2017 and I found Alice randomly on a Web site and was so happy I did.  She has bent absolutely over backwards in helping us find our dream home.  She has been 100% clear about all facets of buying a home and carefully explained everything to us in full detail as we meandered in and out of the home buying  process!  We couldn’t have done it without her!

    Douglas Lober